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Geologic reconstructions of overwash events can extend storm records beyond the brief instrumental record. However, the return periods of storms calculated from geologic records alone may underestimate the frequency of events given the preservation bias of geologic records. Here, we compare a geologic reconstruction of storm activity from a salt marsh in New Jersey to two neighboring instrumental records at the Sandy Hook and Battery tide gauges. Eight overwash deposits were identified within the marsh's stratigraphy by their fan‐shaped morphology and coarser mean grain size (3.6 ± 0.7 φ) compared to autochthonous sediments they were embedded in (5.6 ± 0.8 φ). We used an age–depth model based on modern chronohorizons and three radiocarbon dates to provide age constraints for the overwash deposits. Seven of the overwash deposits were attributed to historical storms, including the youngest overwash deposit from Hurricane Sandy in 2012. The four youngest overwash deposits overlap with instrumental records. In contrast, the Sandy Hook and Battery tide gauges recorded eight and 11 extreme water levels above the 10% annual expected probability (AEP) of exceedance level, respectively, between 1932/1920 and the present. The geologic record in northern New Jersey, therefore, has a 36–50% preservation potential of capturing extreme water levels above the 10% AEP level.more » « less
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Overwash deposits from tropical cyclone-induced storm surges are commonly used as modern analogues for paleo-storm studies. However, the evolution of these deposits between their time of deposition and their incorporation into the geologic record is poorly understood. To understand how the characteristics of an overwash deposit can change over time, we analyzed overwash deposits from four mangrove islands in southern Florida two to three months and twenty-two months after Hurricane Irma's landfall in the region on 10 September 2017. We analyzed the stratigraphy, mean grain size, organic and carbonate contents, stable carbon isotopic signatures, and microfossil (foraminifera and diatom) assemblages of pre-Irma and Irma overwash sediments. Hurricane Irma's storm surge deposited light gray carbonate muds and sands up to 11 cm thick over red organic-rich mangrove peats throughout mangrove islands in southern Florida. Stratigraphy, grain size, loss-on-ignition, and foraminifera analyses provided the strongest evidence for differentiating Irma's overwash deposit from underlying mangrove peats and, if preserved, are expected to identify Hurricane Irma's overwash event within the geologic record. Mean grain size showed the overwash deposit (5.0 ± 0.8 ɸ) was coarser than underlying mangrove peats (6.7 ± 0.7 ɸ), and loss-on-ignition showed the overwash deposit had a lower organic content (19.8 ± 9.1%) and a higher carbonate content (67.8 ± 20.7%) than the underlying peats (59.4 ± 14.6% and 33.7 ± 11.0%, respectively). The overwash deposit was dominated by a diverse, abundant assemblage of sub-tidal benthic calcareous foraminifera compared to a uniform, sparse assemblage of agglutinated foraminifera in the pre-Irma mangrove peats. Geochemical indicators were not able to provide evidence of an overwash event by differentiating organic δ13C or C/N of the overwash deposit from those of the mangrove peats. The complex relationship between diatoms and local environmental factors prevented diatom assemblages from providing a statistically clear distinction between Irma's overwash sediments and underlying mangrove peats. By visiting Hurricane Irma's overwash deposit immediately following landfall and nearly two years post-storm, we were able to document how the overwash deposit's characteristics changed over time. Continued monitoring on the scale of five to ten years would provide further insights into the preservation of overwash deposits for paleo-storm studies.more » « less
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Abstract Future warming in the Mediterranean is expected to significantly exceed global values with unpredictable implications on the sea-level rise rates in the coming decades. Here, we apply an empirical-Bayesian spatio-temporal statistical model to a dataset of 401 sea-level index points from the central and western Mediterranean and reconstruct rates of sea-level change for the past 10,000 years. We demonstrate that the mean rates of Mediterranean industrial-era sea-level rise have been significantly faster than any other period since ~4000 years ago. We further highlight a previously unrecognized variability in Mediterranean sea-level change rates. In the Common Era, this variability correlates with the occurrence of major regional-scale cooling/warming episodes. Our data show a sea-level stabilization during the Late Antique Little Ice Age cold event, which interrupted a general rising trend of ~0.45 mm a −1 that characterized the warming episodes of the Common Era. By contrast, the Little Ice Age cold event had only minor regional effects on Mediterranean sea-level change rates.more » « less
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Mangrove forests along the coastlines of the tropical and sub-tropical western Atlantic are intermittently impacted by hurricanes and can be damaged by high-speed winds, high-energy storm surges, and storm surge sediment deposits that suffocate tree roots. This study quantified trends in damage, delayed mortality, and early signs of below- and aboveground recovery in mangrove forests in the Lower Florida Keys and Ten Thousand Islands following direct hits by Hurricane Irma in September 2017. Mangrove trees suffered 19% mortality at sites in the Lower Florida Keys and 11% in the Ten Thousand Islands 2–3 months post-storm; 9 months post-storm, mortality in these locations increased to 36% and 20%, respectively. Delayed mortality of mangrove trees was associated with the presence of a carbonate mud storm surge deposit on the forest floor. Mortality and severe branch damage were more common for mangrove trees than for mangrove saplings. Canopy coverage increased from 40% cover 1–2 months post-storm to 60% cover 3–6 months post-storm. Canopy coverage remained the same 9 months post-storm, providing light to an understory of predominantly Rhizophora mangle (red mangrove) seedlings. Soil shear strength was higher in the Lower Florida Keys and varied with depth; no significant trends were found in shear strength between fringe or basin plots. Rates of root growth, as assessed using root in-growth bags, were relatively low at 0.01–11.0 g m−2 month−1 and were higher in the Ten Thousand Islands. This study demonstrated that significant delayed mangrove mortality can occur 3–9 months after a hurricane has passed, with some mortality attributable to smothering by storm surge deposits.more » « less
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